Tuesday, May 23, 2006

Traffic Exchanges - Choosing the Right One

Autosurfs and manual surfs are popping up faster than rabbits breed nowadays. It’s humanly impossible to join every one of them out there. Moreover, with the number of dubious characters out there trying to steal your money, it’s not advisable to contemplate joining every one.

There are a number of factors to consider before you make a conscious effort to put your money into one of these traffic exchanges. They are by no means exhaustive, and you should feel free to add any that you find will help you make an informed decision. No one point is more important than the other, no matter how I phrase them. It varies from individual to individual.

As a suggestion, you could also set weightages/scale to each of the points mentioned and do up a checklist to determine if you should part with your money on particular programs. However I’m not driven by numbers, but rather by intuition.

Based on my experience, these are some of the factors you should consider before upgrading.

Percentage Returns/Length of Upgrades
These 2 are co-related. The higher the daily percentage returns, the shorter the upgrades last. If both are considerably high, chances are that the program isn’t built to last very long. There’s a high chance such a program could possibly be a scam to lure the greedy.

Sustainability
Let me for the record state that most, if not all traffic exchanges that offer a fixed percentage returns do not last. Learn to calculate the REAL daily percentages of these programs. This should give you a good idea on how much a program is paying and how much you would be making in REAL profits a month. The calculation:

Daily percentage = Total payout percentage/Upgrade length

This of course doesn’t factor in any withdrawal fees. Withdrawal fees will reduce your
‘total payout percentage’. I’ve also conveniently left out the number of days before you get paid. This, in my opinion, is a variable number. The longer you continue with your upgrades the lesser the impact of that figure.

Withdrawal Fees
As mentioned above, this will cut into the total amount you receive, hence effectively reducing the amount you earn. Administrators like to implement this to give the impression that they have considered all the server and other miscellaneous fees.

In truth all these can and should be factored in when coming up with the daily percentages. If there are fees that need to be covered, reduce the daily percentage. But of course you would hardly see this happening. It creates the impression that the program is having problems, hence a withdrawal fee is introduced. Also keeping the daily percentages high gives the illusion that the program pays more.

Payout Requirements
This is particularly important in my decision making. Programs that payout daily, set themselves up for immediate failure. As a program grows, daily payouts become a logistical nightmare for the administrator. It also shows that the program is totally reliant on new members to payout the old. There is no lead time to gauge the amount of money required for payouts.

Delayed payouts on the other hand (be it a day or a week) works in 2 ways. Firstly it gives the illusion that money is used in some form and needs to be transferred to make payments. Secondly, it gives the illusion that the administrator has some form of money management. Both are better than the daily paying administrator.

Compounding
It's commonly acknowledged amongst players in the industry that if a program allows compounding, it would hamper it's longevity. I prefer to see it as a non-issue. Compounding occurs regardless of if the program allows it or not. Members who get paid will tend to 're-invest' or 're-purchase' upgrades.

Depending on the terms in which compounding is done, it can actually work towards your advantage. In most cases, compounding reduces the fees issued by payprocessors. I personally see it as good money management by the administrator. As for it shortening the life of a program, that actually all depends on withdrawals and upgrades. When total withdrawals are greater than total upgrades, the program crashes. Payout rules play a larger part than compounding here.

Server
Everyone who is serious about such programs should learn how to do a whois on the server the program is hosted on. This usually gives a very telling picture on how the program will perform in the near future and a bit about the administrator.

Here are a couple of websites that I use which provide good information

1. Domain Tools
2. Webhosting.info

The whois information shows the registrants particulars and should also show the number of websites hosted on that particular server. In most cases, the registrant particulars are not of paramount importance to me. To protect their own privacy, some administrators prefer to hide them, which I have no issue with, since I value my own privacy very much.

As for reverse ips (showing the number of websites), it basically tells you if a program is prepared for growth. The more websites hosted on the server, the smaller the bandwidth allocated to the program. A traffic exchange would require a large bandwidth. Looking up the websites on the reverse ip data would also allow you to see if any other traffic exchange is hosted on the server as well. The more isn't the merrier here.

A well planned program would usually prime itself for growth. The more serious administrators would pay more for a dedicated server. This means that the only website hosted on the server is the program itself.

On the other hand, some owners prefer to upgrade their bandwidth and servers as and when the situation requires it. As long as the administrator is able to pre-empt the needs, it should be fine. If done smoothly, it would save the administrator additional costs. However, from experience, this is often hard to do, and most fail miserably in this aspect.

FAQ and Terms
Read and read again before you join any site. Read and read again before you upgrade. Know the rules and requirements. Knowledge is your best weapon. I often see people in forums complaining bout things that have already been written in the Terms of Service (ToS). If they had spent a little time reading, most of these complaints would have been answered adequately.

The other thing here is while reading the ToS, see if it's original. If the ToS has been copied from elsewhere (which is very rampant), chances are the administrator here is out for a quick buck. It also shows that there is nothing really unique about the site that will draw new members. A program that can't attract new members is probably doomed to failure. A serious administrator will have a unique ToS to make his program stand out from the myriad of surf programs.

I personally tend to go into detail when it comes to a program's FAQ and Terms. It's usually a major part of my decision making.

Design and Script
The script and design tells alot about an auto or manual surf. The design basically tells you how much has been invested in the site. A good design attracts new members to sign up. That would at least give the program a chance to take off. Barring the administrator being an outfront scammer right from the off, you'd have a higher chance to profit from the program.

Same goes with the scripts used. Unfortunately most of the scripts used is a generic script that's been heavily modified. The things we can do when we join a program is to give the script a test. We can't test it as hard as the administrator, hence we can only hope the modifications are not buggy. One huge problem with new modifications is that administrators rush to get them online without the proper testing. This rises problems in the later life of the program, usually occuring on the first payouts. In my opinion, such programs are best avoided. If you have to join, do so with a test spend. An administrator who doesn't test his script rigoriously isn't going to be serious with your money. The only thing he's serious with is lining his pockets.

Program Lifespan
As everyone should already know, this is a gamble and timing is everything. You play for profits, hence you would want to choose to enter when it’s profitable. Going in at an appropriate time is essential. You wouldn’t want to enter when the program is already on a decline, chances are that you’d be losing your money. You also wouldn’t want to be throwing in a large some of money right from the beginning only to have the administrator turn into a scammer.

Knowing when the program has started and gauging for yourself when to enter is an art by itself. Unfortunately I don’t really have any words of wisdom here. As a general rule of thumb, I don’t join programs that have already been running for over a fortnight. I don’t mind missing the train. Another one will always come along.

Traffic
From what I’ve read, most of the more experienced players in this arena tend to base a lot of a program’s future success on the Alexa chart. It basically shows the amount of traffic that is generated by a website over a certain period of time. I’m bewildered how others translate that to the future of a program.

To me it merely shows that the program is currently doing well. There is no guarantee that the site will still be standing tomorrow. So don’t be fooled by people trying to show you how successful a site is.

Administrator
Administrators play a very prominent role in the success or failure of a program, and your wallet. How quick a ticket is responded to, how fast he is to make payouts, how visible he is in forums all play a part in instilling confidence in his members.

Generally, the more active the administrator is, the more successful the program is. A traffic exchange requires a more personal touch than a hyip. It also requires more babysitting to ensure smooth operations.

Sometimes, well established names in the forums also step up to the plate to run programs themselves. Why in the world would they put their hard earned reputations on the line is beyond me. I find the hard work and the heartaches not worth the hassle. Of course I leave you to make heads or tails out of it.

Lemmings
This should actually read as ‘Cheerleaders’, but I prefer using ‘Lemmings’. Somehow I always imagine those who need to post whore or signature whore in forums particularly amusing. When a program is up, they would cheerlead, posting useless material that doesn’t benefit anyone except to show their signature or increase their post count. However then a program fails (which eventually all do, albeit in different forms), they would be the first to curse, swear and bitch at the administrator, who probably was the Exalted One just a week ago.

Anyway the point I’m trying to make is not to be swayed by the general cheerleading that goes on in forums, websites and blogs. You have the tools to make an informed decision, or at least a semi-informed decision and you should use them. Joining because everyone else does makes you a lemming. And you should know what lemmings do, when one jumps off the cliff, they all do. They are driven by the herd mentality. Don’t let the herd sway you, make your own decisions.

Documentation
There is a growing trend of programs to show their company registration and other related company documentation. Unfortunately, I’m a sceptic. If a program needs to provide any form of legitimacy, the best way to do it is to show a government issued document and the owner’s passport that are notarised by a notary public. Anything less is just another form of giving false security.

Conclusion
In conclusion, learn to choose the programs you want to be involved in. I’m sure there are other factors to consider, but until I think of them (or email me if you have any), please use a large dose of common sense when you decide to gamble. Hopefully it’s been as helpful to you as it is for me.

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