NSFG : Food For Thought

I just received an email from Paul, and as expected, there was a drop of almost 70% of what's left in my account. Seeing that if I take the option to leave by the 15th of November, I'd only be left with 31% of my previous statement, I've chosen to stay. For better or for worse, that remains to be seen. In my book, if I'm going to lose 70% of my equity on a risk, it's as good as losing it all. Might as well make the best of a bad situation, but I also empathize with those who choose to leave.

Some (junk) food for thought:

- I can see why they chose to do what they did. The entire fiasco probably happened early in the year when they switched brokerage from ACM to FXCM. Had they announced it at that time, it would have spelt the death of the program at it's infancy. There would not be any managed accounts, from which the fees are crucial to recovery (more on that later).

- If they pulled it off, they would look like geniuses, but as we all know, they're currently looking like dunces.

- This comment was left by a reader, Harris, on the 19th of Oct, which I found to be useful and not widely discussed. I've taken the liberty to change some of the figures (hope you don't mind), with current ones from their latest update.

Given the next 3 months are used as a recovery period, I feel the lost amounts can be feasibly recovered, if they continue along the lines of the straight 5% gain they have been able to get.

Let's use a ballpark figure of 1 million. According to what I've read, only 10% of the funds are in the pooled accounts and of that half (70,000) have been lost.

So accordingly, $930,000 is effectively used in a trade. While 70,000 needs to be recovered.

If they manage to get 5%, that would mean 1.25% as a performance fee (or as the mail suggests towards the recovery). That's 1.25% * 930000 = 11,625 every month.

Multiple that by 4, you'd get $46,500 in 4 months. That's almost a full recovery by the end of January. (Note : or 6 months to achieve 69, 750)

That is assuming they make a flat 5% every month and no compounding. If there is compounding, which there will be, the recovery process would be faster.

- The above of course assumes that the managed accounts are indeed 90% of that of the pooled accounts and that NSFG is able to pull off 5% gains on a monthly basis. It also doesn't take into consideration of compounding, which Paul gives an indication he would do in the latest update.

- So effectively we should be looking at a 6 month timeline to recover, ceterus paribus.

- While I don't think they would pull off another stunt like the one they pulled off, but given the fact that they did, I wouldn't and can't put too much trust in them either.

- Last but not least, here's the latest update from NSFG:

Hello Everyone,

Okay well the month has ended and following this we have now worked out what the liquidity level on the Pool Fund currently is. That figure is 31.27%

What this means is that your statements will be altered to reflect the available balance of your account should you wish to request a withdrawal of your funds at this point.

What we will to do going forward is increase this balance till it gets back up to the September level through a combination of trading returns and the addition of our own funds derived from the company commissions etc each month.

You may request a withdrawal at any time as normal, as long as it is in line with your current available balance as per the statements I will be sending out each month as normal. I want to make it absolutely clear that if you choose to withdraw the balance of your account as it stands, it WILL close your Northsea Account.

Please remember that you will need to email: withdrawal@ns-fg.com for the withdrawal form. It will need to be submitted to me before the 15th of November. I will then remove the requested funds from the trading account and your withdrawal will be processed AROUND the 25th of the month. It takes time for the funds to move from the trading account to our company bank account, and then again onto the egold exchanger and then into our egold account, which is why I say around the 25th.

Let me reiterate again that the balance your statement shows is the available balance you have right now if you want to withdraw. As a significant amount of you have already told me that you do not wish to withdraw, you need to nothing and let us get your accounts back up. This is simply the easiest way for those that do want to withdraw to know exactly what they have in their accounts right now.

I will be sending out the statements shortly, if you have any questions in regards to these or anything else, please do not hesitate to get in touch with me. Have a great week!

Yours,
Paul